I think the graph is accurate though I got a bit suspicious since it's comparing the Dow of 1929-'32 with the S&P 500 since then. Why not compare the Dow all the way along? It would show the same thing I think.
The graph does not give a full picture of economic crises. I noticed that the graph does not include the economic downturn from 1977-1984, but this is because the market only went down about 20% from 1977-1980. The market trended upward after that, but the way in which this period was significant was in unemployment, which trended upward starting in 1979, and peaked at 10.8% in 1982. This was the highest it had gotten to since the Great Depression. The highest the unemployment rate got to between 1973-'76 was about 9%.
Where we are now in the unemployment rate, 7.6%, is the same as the peak unemployment rate in 1992. Like the period from 1980-84, from 1990-'92 unemployment rose as the market went up.
We anticipate unemployment is going to get worse as the year progresses. This downturn is like the tech crash of 2000, in that unemployment is rising while the market goes down, though the unemployment rate was relatively mild from 2001-'03, reaching a peak of 6.3%. I can tell you it felt a lot worse than that in the field of work I'm in. It was a "tech depression" as far as we were concerned.
The Atlantic takes on “affirmative care”
-
One sign that there has been a sea change in America’s gung-ho enthusiasm
for “affirmative care” of minors with gender dysphoria is the mainstream
media’s ...
GOP spending bill: how many people have to die?
-
from Dean Baker That’s the question Republicans in Congress are debating as
they struggle to put Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill (BBB)” in final
form to...
Ubuntu Disables Spectre/Meltdown Protections
-
A whole class of speculative execution attacks against CPUs were published
in 2018. They seemed pretty catastrophic at the time. But the fixes were as
we...
The War Beneath the War
-
In this dynamic interview, economist Michael Hudson unpacks the deeper
forces behind the U.S. war on Iran. Far beyond regional tensions, Hudson
argues th...
A mid-year (non-work) checkpoint
-
We’re half-way through 2025, which means it’s a good time to check how I’m
doing against some of the goals I set for the year. Read more I wanted to
read m...
The end of US democracy
-
I’ve held off posting this in the hope of coming up with some kind of
positive response, but I haven’t got one. When I wrote back in November
2024 that Tru...
BusyBeaver(6) is really quite large
-
For overdetermined reasons, I’ve lately found the world an increasingly
terrifying and depressing place. It’s gotten harder and harder to
concentrate on re...
Counting with Categories
-
You can see some lecture notes for a minicourse on combinatorics that I’m
teaching at the Summer School on Algebra at the Zografou campus of the
National T...
Machines of Faithful Obedience
-
[Crossposted on LessWrong] Throughout history, technological and scientific
advances have had both good and ill effects, but their overall impact has
been ...
NASA Is Worth Saving
-
Casey Handmer June 2025 Download a printable PDF. NASA was founded in 1958
in response to Sputnik and the emerging necessity of a robust, government
suppor...
Tiny Countries Should Not Exist
-
There is no good reason for tiny countries to exist, and we should stop
making more of them.
The World Bank classifies 40 countries as 'small states' on t...
Parallels between Generative AI and Humanoid Robots
-
Anyone who reads just about anything these days will know there are two big
things in AI at the moment. They are Generative AI and Humanoid Robots.
There i...
European Far Right are Russian Quislings
-
We need to strongly oppose pacifist opposition to European re-armament. The
latter is urgent and essential to defeating Russian fascist aggression in
Ukrai...
Re. software engineering: Seeing the wheel
-
Many years ago, I heard Alan Kay talk about software that’s commonly used
as being “a broken wheel.” I had trouble understanding what he meant by
that, but...
Good News Ukraine.
-
Sorting out the real situation in the Russo Ukrainian war
https://billkerr1947.github.io/ukraineWar/ “Artillery Conquers, Infantry
Occupies” and drones are...
Blame: The Original Cryptocurrency
-
They tie up heavy bundles of blame and place them on men’s shoulders, but
they themselves aren’t willing to lift a finger to help, siphoning off from
the g...
Papert’s 8 Big Ideas (Lithuanian Translation)
-
Translation by Marius Narvilas Aštuonios didžiosios konstrukcionizmo
idÄ—jos Dr Seymour Papert 1999 Pirmoji idÄ—ja – mokytis darant. Visada
išmokstama ger...
Marble Maze Modules
-
Beyond the Marble: How Modular Mazes Build Skills and Spark Wonder Building
a marble maze is more than just a fun challenge—it’s a gateway to exploring
a w...
Lifespan extension: separating fact from fiction
-
Thinking about longevity practically is a tricky affair. On the one hand,
we have very little definitive knowledge about how to prolong your healthy
years ...
1 comment:
I think the graph is accurate though I got a bit suspicious since it's comparing the Dow of 1929-'32 with the S&P 500 since then. Why not compare the Dow all the way along? It would show the same thing I think.
The graph does not give a full picture of economic crises. I noticed that the graph does not include the economic downturn from 1977-1984, but this is because the market only went down about 20% from 1977-1980. The market trended upward after that, but the way in which this period was significant was in unemployment, which trended upward starting in 1979, and peaked at 10.8% in 1982. This was the highest it had gotten to since the Great Depression. The highest the unemployment rate got to between 1973-'76 was about 9%.
Where we are now in the unemployment rate, 7.6%, is the same as the peak unemployment rate in 1992. Like the period from 1980-84, from 1990-'92 unemployment rose as the market went up.
We anticipate unemployment is going to get worse as the year progresses. This downturn is like the tech crash of 2000, in that unemployment is rising while the market goes down, though the unemployment rate was relatively mild from 2001-'03, reaching a peak of 6.3%. I can tell you it felt a lot worse than that in the field of work I'm in. It was a "tech depression" as far as we were concerned.
Post a Comment