Saturday, September 12, 2009

skeptical about economic recovery

I'm skeptical about the green shoots talk of economic recovery

I'm very far from being expert about economics. I do hope to get back to studying it more soon.

How do you judge these things when you are not expert?

Well, if those experts who did predict this "great recession" thought that there was a real recovery happening then I would be more inclined to think it true

Who are those experts who have some real credibility?

Steve Keen (of Western Sydney Uni) is one. I'm subscribing to his blog: Steve Keen's Debtwatch: Analysing the Global Debt Bubble

One of Keen's blogs links to this pdf ("No one saw it coming") which includes a list of 12 experts who predicted the recession:
Dean Baker, US co-director, Center for Economic and Policy Research
“ …plunging housing investment will likely push the economy into recession.” (2006)

Wynne Godley, US Distinguished Scholar, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College
“The small slowdown in the rate at which US household debt levels are rising resulting form the house price decline, will immediately lead to a …sustained growth recession … before 2010”. (2006). “Unemployment [will] start to rise significantly and does not come down again.” (2007)

Fred Harrison, UK Economic commentator
“The next property market tipping point is due at end of 2007 or early 2008 …The only way prices can be brought back to affordable levels is a slump or recession” (2005).

Michael Hudson, US professor, University of Missouri
“Debt deflation will shrink the “real” economy, drive down real wages, and push our debt-ridden economy into Japan-style stagnation or worse.” (2006)

Eric Janszen, US investor and iTulip commentator
“The US will enter a recession within years” (2006). “US stock markets are likely to begin in 2008 to experience a “Debt Deflation Bear Market” (2007)

Stephen Keen, Australia associate professor, University of Western Sydney
“Long before we manage to reverse the current rise in debt, the economy will be in a recession. On current data, we may already be in one.” (2006)

Jakob Brøchner Madsen & Jens Kjaer Sørensen, Denmark
professor & graduate student, Copenhagen University
“We are seeing large bubbles and if they bust, there is no backup. The outlook is very bad” (2005)” The bursting of this housing bubble will have a severe impact on the world economy and may even result in a recession” (2006).

Kurt Richebächer, US private consultant and investment newsletter writer
“The new housing bubble – together with the bond and stock bubbles – will invariably implode in the foreseeable future, plunging the U.S. economy into a protracted, deep recession” (2001). “A recession and bear market in asset prices are inevitable for the U.S. economy… All remaining questions pertain solely to speed, depth and duration of the economy’s downturn.” (2006)

Nouriel Roubini, US professor, New York University
“Real home prices are likely to fall at least 30% over the next 3 years“(2005). “By itself this house price slump is enough to trigger a US recession.” (2006)

Peter Schiff , US stock broker, investment adviser and commentator
“[t]he United States economy is like the Titanic …I see a real financial crisis coming for the United States.” (2006). “There will be an economic collapse” (2007).

Robert Shiller , US professor, Yale University
“There is significant risk of a very bad period, with rising default and foreclosures, serious trouble in financial markets, and a possible recession sooner than most of us expected.” (2006)

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